I am a Political Scientist and Associate Professor at FGV/EBAPE, a school of business and public administration in Rio de Janeiro. I have previously been an Assistant Professor at Rutgers, and held visiting appointments at Nuffield College, Princeton, Yale, and IUPERJ (currently IESP). I specialize in Latin American politics, and have written on executive-legislative relations, political parties, voting behavior, and the politics of public policy.
This website provides information about my published and ongoing projects, as well as links to data and replication materials. I try to keep it updated, but feel free to contact me with suggestions, corrections, or to request materials not available here.
I am the author of "Partisans, Antipartisans, and Nonpartisans" (with David Samuels), published in 2018 by Cambridge University Press. In this book, we employ a mix of observational and experimental techniques to examine the determinants and consequences of party identification in Brazil. We devote quite a lot of attention to negative partisanship, which is particularly important despite having been overlooked by the previous literature. The main message of the book is that partisanship and antipartisanship developed in tandem in Brazil, and have shaped voting behavior to a much greater extent than has been previously acknowledged.
My main current project is a collaboration with Daniela Campello in which we examine how economic factors beyond the control of governments affect their popularity and reelection prospects. We are particularly interested in the consequences of voters' misattribution of responsibility for economic outcomes, particularly in countries reliant on commodity exports and foreign investment flows, and how it prevents voters from holding incumbents accountable. The first paper in the project was published in The Journal of Politics in 2016, and was recently mentioned in The Economist. A second piece is forthcoming in the same journal, and other working papers are now circulating (see below). The first draft of the book manuscript was discussed in a workshop at Nuffield College in March of 2018 and is currently under review for publication.
Timothy Power and I coordinate the Brazilian Legislative Surveys, a two-decade effort to track and record the beliefs of Brazilian legislators. The 8th wave of the BLS was fielded during the first semester of 2017 and its results and were made public and discussed in a workshop hosted by Oxford's Latin American Centre, in February 2018. The first paper out of this wave examining the relative importance of each ministerial position in Brazil was recently accepted at Research and Politics. A second paper on polarization and fragmentation, along with the complete dataset and updated estimates of the ideological positions of Brazilian parties, will be available shortly.
I am also engaged in two public-policy related projects. One is a Metaketa II field experiment on the formalization of low-income microentrepreneurs, in which I collaborate with Anna-Katharina Lenz, Rafael Goldszmitdt, and Martin Valdivia. Data collection from the endline survey was recently completed, administrative outcomes are being observed, and data preparation and analysis will be carried out in 2019. The other is a joint project with Natalia Bueno and Felipe Nunes in which we are assessing the political impacts of the "Minha Casa, Minha Vida" housing program. We are finishing a paper based on the first wave of a survey of beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries that ended in 2018, and a second wave is being planned for 2019.